By Sami Zaptia.
London, 10 December 2019:
Libya’s oil revenues were up by LD 4.14 bn from a projected LD 24.2 bn to LD 28.34 bn and total budget spending was down from a projected LD 42.9 bn to LD 40.2 bn, the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) reported in its latest bulletin covering the period 1/1/2019 to 30/11/2019.
State spending for the period was in surplus by LD 2.73 bn. Oil revenues contributed 93 percent of the state budget.
On the macro level, the CBL reported that Real GDP is up from LD 34.9 bn in 2017 to LD 47.1 bn in 2018. It forecasts that GDP will be up to LD 49.7 by end of 2019.
Inflation was also down from 28.5 percent in 2017 to minus 1 percent by end of November 2019.
The parallel/black market exchange rate for the US dollar has also collapsed dramatically from a peak LD 9.2 per dollar in 2017 down to LD 3.92 per dollar in November 2019.
However, with the exception of the foreign currency levy, all other state revenues were down on forecasts. Tax remittances were down from a projected LD 1.1 bn to LD 842 million. Customs duties were down from a forecast LD 733 million down to LD 275 million.
Revenues from communications such as mobile service providers Al Madar and Libyana and the state internet service provider LTT were also down from a projected LD 688 million to LD 201 million. CBL profits were similarly down from a forecast LD 275 million to LD 125 million.
State revenues from local fuel sales were down from the forecast LD 733 million to LD 300 million. Other state duties and revenues were down from a forecast LD 688 million to LD 557 million.
However, it was revenues from the recently introduced (September 2018) foreign currency sales levy which were up from a projected LD 14.48 bn to LD 21.1 bn that kept the budget in surplus.
On outgoings, state-sector salaries still took up the largest share of the budget at 54 percent of total outgoings, coming in at LD 21.6 bn down on the forecast LD 23.14 bn.
Operational spending (20 percent) was down from forecast LD 8.55 bn to LD 8.25 bn. Spending on projects and development (9 percent) were down from LD 4.58 to LD 3.61 bn. Spending on subsidies (17 percent) was however slightly up from a forecast LD 6.63 bn to LD 6.70 bn.
These figures led to total spending coming in at LD 40.2 bn as opposed to a forecast LD 42.90 bn.