By Sami Zaptia.
Tripoli, 8 February 2022:
During its session yesterday the House of Representatives (HoR) listened to the presentations of prime ministerial candidates.
According to HoR Speaker Ageela Saleh, only two out of seven candidates qualified based on the HoR’s regulations. He reported that Ahmed Maetig had withdrawn his candidacy.
The two candidates were Fathi Bashagha and Khaled Bibas.
Bibas, from Tripoli, was the former head of the Civil Registry Authority (CRA).
Bashagha was a former militia leader in Misrata, the former Interior Minister under the Faiez Serraj Government of National Accord (GNA), and former candidate for prime minister under the Geneva Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) process with Ageela Saleh. He lost out in that process to Abd Alhamid Aldabaiba. Bashagha is also a candidate for president in the postponed 24 December 2021 elections.
The candidates were not subjected to questioning by members.
Bibas set up to be the fall guy?
Bashagha made a much longer and stronger presentation. It almost felt that Mr Bibas was chosen to make Bashagha the only real choice. To the delight of members Bashagha vowed unequivocally that if he were chosen as the next interim prime minister, he would not stand at the next elections.
Bashagha accepted by the east – but what about the west and Misrata?
Bashagha’s working relationship with Khalifa Hafter and Ageela Saleh mean that he is accepted by eastern Libya and by far the candidate most likely to win the HoR vote. Paradoxically, Bashagha now has to persuade western Libya and his own home city of Misrata into accepting him.
Misrata must make a difficult decision
Misrata will have a difficult decision to make. Does it stick with current Caretaker Prime Minister Abd Alhamid Aldabaiba or does it switch to Bashagha? Pessimists think that there could be a military clash between the different Misratan sides.
However, the more sage observers say Misratans always avoid fighting each other and will come to an agreement that is good for Misrata. After all, the city is in a win-win situation whether Aldabaiba or Bashagha are prime minister.
Tripoli’s militias?
There is a possibility that some Tripoli-based militias might object to Bashagha. It is reported that Bashagha has already held meetings with them. Ultimately, if most of Misrata (Misrata’s militias) are behind Bashagha, Tripoli and western Libya will most likely than not accept him.
Bashagha backed by the HSC?
This is all the more likely if the High State Council (HSC) accepts Bashagha. At yesterday’s session there were strong hints that members should accept Bashagha as a political decision and not put the matter to a vote. There were hints that the Road Map Committee negotiated the candidacy of Bashagha with the HSC.
What about the international community?
And if this is the case, the international community will have to accept the new Libyan-led, Libyan-Libyan stats quo.
The vote on the new Prime Minister will now be on 10 February
According to article three of the Road Map approved by the HoR yesterday ‘‘After listening to the programmes of the candidates for prime minister, the HoR leadership shall refer the names of the candidates to the High State Council to submit the required recommendations regarding them, provided that the vote to choose one of the candidates will be in the session on Thursday, 10 February 2022.’’
